The referendum for the West Bench water upgrade project will be held on June 2nd.  Click on the image on the left for more information on the referendum.

My letter to West Bench residents about the water referendum is available by clicking the document on the right.

Please take a few moments to get out and vote on this very important issue.

(click on image to load slide show)

(a PDF version without animations is also available)

I was reluctant at the April 3, 2012, public meeting to provide an estimate of the average West Bench water bill under the proposed bulk water deal in Penticton.  To review, here is my argument:

1. The West Bench has to make a decision between bulk water from Penticton and UV treatment.  There are no other feasible alternatives (e.g., the status quo is not possible due to the condition of the system, IHA requirements, grant expiry dates, and the boil water situation).  As such, it does not really matter what the two options cost in absolute terms: West Benchers have to pick one and they should pick the cheapest. Now the cheapest may come in at $1,000 per year or $1,500 per year or $2,500 per year.  It does not really matter if you don't like these numbers—you have to pay for your water system.  That is the simple truth.
2. There is significant uncertainty in cost estimation at this early stage.  The engineers have only provided "pre-design" estimates of cost based on guidelines and their experience with similar projects.  The system itself has not been designed in any detail and tender responses have not been received.  Indeed, we cannot engage in any meaningful design (which is expensive) until we have authorization from West Bench voters to proceed with the project.
3. We assume that uncertainty in (2) impacts the cost estimates for all alternatives in approximately the same way.  This clearly the case for interest rates, inflation, and so on.  Thus we may be off by a factor of +/- 20% on our estimates for the bulk water option.  But there is no reason to believe that we are not off by a similar amount in our estimates for UV.  Thus the relative ranking of the alternatives is assumed to be insensitive to uncertainty.
4. My personal experience is that people anchor on estimates and are dismayed if costs are higher and happy if costs are lower.  But as noted in (2) our estimates at this point are not particularly reliable.

Having said all this, I have prepared a PowerPoint slide show to walk residents through the process of estimating your water bill based on what we know to date. This is more complex than some people might guess given the importance of inflation and interest over such a long time horizon.  Please let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Bottom line: I estimate average water costs for West Bench residents in 2013 will be approximately $1840/year.  This compares to the current average of $1691/year.  We may come in higher or lower, but this is a reasonable estimate given what we know now.

Important: the RDOS borrowing bylaw and the information provided during the open house use a higher value for borrowing than my analysis on the left ($4.05M versus $3.17M).  This is because RDOS policy is to include healthy contingency when requesting authorization to borrow.  This prevents having to come back for another (expensive) referendum if costs increase.  During the referendum you will be asked to provide the RDOS with authority to borrow up to this padded amount.  Actual borrowing will be based on actual costs.

(click for a larger image)

(click for a larger image)

Update November, 2011: The RDOS was recently provided with a grant from the federal Department of Veterans' Affairs to make this tribute project a reality (see the news story under "News and media" below). We are now in the process of putting together a design committee and organizing public consultation. Please stand by for updates...

Update 01 February 2012: A design open house will be held on Thursday, 16 Feb, 2012, at 7 PM in the West Bench gynmansium (or library, if numbers permit).  You can fill out pre-open house survey below.